Ask Gamasutra: Sony bought Gaikai, are discs going away?

[Ask Gamasutra is a monthly column that takes issues from within the video game industry and poses them as a question to the editorial staff. In contributing to this article, none of the editors read each other's responses. This is not about collaboration, but about the unique perspective that each individual Gamasutra editor offers.] If there's one news story that's on everyone's minds this week, it's Sony's imminent acquisition of "cloud" streaming company Gaikai, confirming pre-E3 rumors that, frankly, we were skeptical of. There's been a lot of speculation on what the move could mean (including within Gamasutra's own community of bloggers), though Sony is understandably tight-lipped with its intentions. However, one can't help but wonder when a major physical console manufacturer acquires a leader in cloud gaming what this means for retail games. So we've posed this simple, yet far-reaching question to our team of editorial experts at Gamasutra and Game Developer magazine: Could Sony's purchase of Gaikai signal the beginning of the end of physical game media? Kris Graft Editor-in-Chief Twitter: @krisgraft The beginning of the end of physical game media started years ago, when software pirates began illegally downloading games from online file-sharing sites. But there are inflection points in the game industry, such as the introduction of Steam, digital storefronts on mobile devices and consoles, and browser-based games that have helped speed up the physical-to-digital transition. The real question is whether or not this $380 million deal between Sony and Gaikai is one of these inflection points. I feel like it is.   Neither OnLive nor Gaikai are perfect today, but that’s the thing – even if a company provided technically perfect, no-lag, frictionless cloud streaming technology, that means little if the correct partnerships that can maximize that tech are not in place. Thus far, cloud game companies’ accomplishments represent little more than a novel way to deliver games; large scale tech demos meant to convince the major content makers of the game industry -- like Sony Computer Entertainment -- that they need to buy their way into the cloud.   The Sony-Gaikai deal is the next necessary step that cloud gaming needs to take in order to become more than just a new way to play retail games. Sony’s stable of internal studios can build games that were intended for the cloud – games that are only possible with the massive processing power that only the cloud can provide. That’s not to mention that Sony has the hardware expertise to provide the vehicle through which we’ll play these streamed games. Good for Gaikai for landing a high-dollar deal with an industry giant that has its fingers deep in software, hardware, and networking.   The nostalgic part of me will miss things like discs and cartridges, but I’m more excited about the kinds of experiences real cloud-based games will provide. Mike Rose UK Editor Twitter: @RaveofRavendale I don't think it's the purchase of Gaikai that rings the funeral bell for physical games. For me, cloud gaming still isn't "there" yet, especially given that I live in the UK, where our national average internet speed is around 6.7MB. Playing strategy games via OnLive is fine - I blasted my way through the entirety of Tropico 4 through the cloud and it was a great experience - but other genres that require quick movement and fast-pacing don't work at all thanks to the delay in sending and receiving the game data. Racing games (like the Dirt series) are impossible to control, and action games like Darksiders feature a slight delay in platform jumping, making them unbearable to play. However, the future is most likely going to be cloud gaming, as internet speeds get better and the cloud gaming technology is ironed out. So Sony's Gaikai acquisition is still a great move, especially for the next PlayStation console, and for fiddling around with streamed demos and the like on PS3. As for the present, it doesn't really mean a great deal, especially for retail games. What is killing retail games, of course, is digital downloads and digital stores like Steam, PSN and XBLA. I can't even remember the last time I considered buying a PC game from a shop thanks to the enormity of Steam, and console gaming is no doubt going in the same direction. Frank Cifaldi News Director Twitter: @frankcifaldi Maybe in the far-flung future, but in the short-term, no. I don't think that Sony's plan for Gaikai is to replace its retail (and for that matter, downloadable) PlayStation games with titles in the cloud anytime soon. Let's not forget, Sony has all kinds of devices and platforms that aren't heavy-duty video game machines. Embedding Gaikai as-is into its TVs is obvious, as is running a streaming game service on its PlayStation Mobile network across several devices (including its own tablets). We've already seen Sony emulate games for the original PlayStation on mobile devices, maybe they'll take that one step further and stream PlayStation 2 or even PlayStation 3 games. I wouldn't be surprised if the tech (not to mention the team) behind Gaikai will eventually be utilized for something a bit more cloudy on the traditional console side, but there's just no way that the next PlayStation will rely entirely on streaming. Brandon Sheffield Sr. Editor Gamasutra; EIC, Game Developer Twitter: @necrosofty Man, you know what, it might be the start of something. If Sony truly believes in its ten-year plan for the PlayStation 3, why not get a head start on that by removing the processing limitations of the device, and essentially make it a box that serves streaming game content? What if this also finally realized that dream of playing the same content on your PS3 and your handheld? The Vita could use the same technology, especially with its 3G connection. Some may argue the speeds aren't fast enough yet, and as streaming games get more popular, there's going to be a serious bandwidth cap issue in the U.S. But these constraints can eventually be worked around. I think the death of physical media is coming, and quickly. Sony really needs an edge in the console race, and this could be it - they could have next-gen content without making people buy a new box. The thing that strikes me though - especially in a world where games are streamed, why the heck would we have a PlayStation, an Xbox, and whatever else serving high end content? There's decreasing reason for multiple consoles, and the idea of streaming games makes it even less compelling. Does anyone really want to have to own more than one box? It's quite possible that the death of physical media will also be the death of multiple dedicated consoles, unless Wii U and Kinect prove to be large enough differentiators. Sony doesn't yet have a differentiator - if they can get out front with streaming, maybe they'll be the main box in town. Chris Morris Editor-at-Large Twitter: @MorrisatLarge I think the beginning of the end actually started a long time ago - perhaps with the launch of Steam. This is a situation where it's hard to pinpoint a beginning until long after the event has occurred. That said, beginnings of the end are just that - beginnings. Physical media might not be the force it was a few years ago, but it's hardly on its death bed and still brings in tens of billions of dollars every year. Broadband penetration rates aren't where they need to be for publishers to abandon the physical disc. And as a lot of people on the east coast recently learned, a strong storm can easily wipe out your playing options for a lot longer than you'd like. (A generator can power an Xbox or PlayStation, but it can't bring the Internet back to life for you - and no one is going to be accessing a console streaming service through their wireless plan anytime soon.) The digital future is coming - and I can see why publishers are eager for it to get here. But from a consumer standpoint, we might not want to rush physical media into extinction quite so fast.  Eric Caoili News Editor Twitter: @tinycartridge I don't foresee a complete end to physical game media -- a mid-21st century where our grandchildren come across old discs stored in our attics and ask, "Papaw, what are these?" -- but yes, it's another step toward our digital-dominated future. A lot of people need to own things in their physical forms, and there are bound to be companies that will cater to those luddites. But I've spent the past year drinking the cloud gaming Kool-Aid, and I believe streaming could eventually be the optimal game distribution method for both game makers and consumers, provided that all the kinks are worked out (e.g. latency problems, infrastructure issues in other countries). Now that console makers, or one of them at least, are starting to take a sip, it seems inevitable that everyone else in this industry will see that this is the way to go, the way to keep costs down and efficiently get their games into consumers' homes. I imagine most gamers will line up for this convenient technology, and soon almost everyone's tongues will be red. Leigh Alexander Editor-at-Large Twitter: @leighalexander There's been prognostication about "the end" of physical media already for years, yet the failure of the PSPGo is one cautionary tale about declaring it prematurely -- more importantly, it was a lesson for Sony that no one company can force the transition. I doubt it'd try again. There are practical ways cloud tech can augment the existing paradigm for games and multimedia on consoles, some of which we're already seeing (I've been saving my Xbox 360 games in the cloud lately!)  Ultimately it's user behavior that ends up dictating these kinds of transitions. Although MP3 players, Apple devices and streaming services helped send physical music CDs to their deaths, it was because they made it easier and cheaper for people to own and consume music, and hence users began to prefer digital. When cloud tech enables faster, easier and less expensive game ownership, that'll be when physical media dies -- not when any one company decides. What the Gaikai acquisition means is that Sony thinks it'll be soon, and wants to be ready. Patrick Miller Editor, Game Developer magazine Twitter: @pattheflip As a consumer, I'd say that "The beginning of the end of physical game media" was Steam, not Gaikai; I already only buy two or three games on an actual disc or cartridge these days thanks to Steam and the iOS App Store, and if I could download current Xbox 360 games onto my console instead of buying discs, I'd gladly do that already. That said, I don't see myself using a cloud gaming service like Gaikai to stream Ultimate Marvel vs. Capcom 3 instead of playing a locally-stored copy (either from my hard drive or an optical disc) because the additional latency would simply make the game unplayable. I am excited to see what a major TV manufacturer can do with its own cloud game division, though. We're used to thinking of movies and TV as experiences that are easily separated from their delivery platform--I can watch a movie on half a dozen devices in my house through Netflix, or Hulu, or from a Blu-ray--but games are still very much a product of the platform we consume them on, and an embedded cloud game service in every Sony TV could do quite a bit to change that. Tom Curtis News Editor Twitter: @thomascurtis From where I'm sitting, it looks like we've been watching physical game media die a slow death for some time now. I mean, look at services like Steam, XBLA, PSN, or iOS -- they've all demonstrated that digital games work, and every day consumers are becoming more and more used to getting their games online rather than going into a store. Hell, Angry Birds alone proves that you don't need your game on shelves to hit critical-mass. And to me, this Sony news looks to be yet another reason why we'll eventually turn away from physical games. Who knows how it'll all shake out, but if Sony plays its cards right, it could allow users to stream even brand new retail releases to their console or TV, giving consumers yet another reason to avoid store-bought media. Of course, that's only the ideal scenario. I do think a digital-only future is still quite a ways off. Cloud-based video games are interesting and exciting, to be sure, but they have a lot to prove. For instance, how will Sony's service work when thousands of PlayStation users want to stream games at once? Will server load or latency be an issue? MMOs and titles like Diablo III have proven that online-dependency can make a game's launch quite difficult. OnLive and Gaikai have shown that cloud-based games work, sure, but those companies have never had the reach of something like the PlayStation brand. I have to wonder how things will change if Sony chooses to go after something on a larger scale. I suppose time will tell. Christian Nutt Features Director Twitter: @ferricide Well, it's a milestone along the way, I suppose, but I don't necessarily think it's the most significant one. The advent of traditional digital game delivery means more to this, as it's closer to the familiar -- easier for companies like Sony to deal with. In fact, the inherent conservatism seen in large corporations makes me think this isn't as significant as it could be. Sony is more desperate than Microsoft and Nintendo are, given its PlayStation 3 and Vita-driven malaise at the moment, so that implies that it should be ready to take more radical steps. Even still, I can't imagine that a company so enmeshed in a particular way of thinking (distributing physical media to dedicated consoles) is going to change so fast so soon. My guess is that this service will be primarily aimed, at first, at distributing classic games (PS1, PS2) to consumers on the PS3 and maybe TVs. This makes sense both as a testbed for the technology and as preservation of the retail relationships Sony relies on to sell hardware to consumers at cost. Of course, selling hardware at cost won't matter in the next generation if it's a cloud-based solution, I recognize. Is it possible that Sony would scrap whatever plans it has for a traditional PlayStation 4 and move to a cloud-based service (either in its own and others' televisions or via an affordable Apple TV-like device?) It seems too radical to believe for a company that can't seem to anticipate shifts and respond in advance.