Analyst: Sims 3 Could Sell 4 Million In '09

Electronic Arts' upcoming Sims 3 could sell over 4 million units in 2009, says Janco Partners analyst Mike Hickey -- although he expects that a demographic transition toward newer entertainment forms like Nintendo's Wii and DS might weigh on the title. Sims 2 sold an estimated 3.5 units in calendar 2004, so the analyst expects the anticipated sequel to outdo its predecessor. EA also detailed today the game's digital distribution-heavy, points-based model for further monetization, although Hickey doesn't project how much Sims 3 can expect to earn incrementally from DLC and expansions. He also expects that piracy is a potential risk for Sims 3 sales -- "Spore sales were likely dramatically impacted by piracy," Hickey says. Hickey also expects the upcoming Harry Potter release to sell about 3.2 million units sold-in, based on EA's own prior projection of $120 million in sales. "We are less excited about the Company’s Dragon Age release, new IP with unproven market demand," the analyst says. "We approximate the game could sell-in 1.3 million units. We are mystified at how management could characterize the game as being 'too high' of a quality."