Pachter: GTA IV Delay Shifts $50-80 Million From GameStop Q3

Ahead of the release of its Q2 results on August 23rd, Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter has said he expects GameStop to report sales of $1.18 billion for the quarter, and said the delay of GTA IV will shift $50–80 million in sales out of its third quarter and into next year. The $1.18 billion estimate is slightly higher than company guidance, and slightly lower than overall U.S. sales, which Pachter says he expects were "positive but slightly less robust" than overall U.S. industry sales, up an estimated 29% in May and June. For Q3, Pachter says he expects GameStop will provide Q2 guidance below consensus estimates of $1.27 billion, due primarily to the delay of GTA IV. "We believe the delay will shift $50–80 million in revenue (game and related sales) out of the quarterand into next year," said Pachter, "but believe that continued strong game and hardware sales will partially offset the shift." "We believe that GTA IV would have sold over 2 million copies in North America in its first two weeks," he continued, "and think that GameStop would have captured 35% of these sales (around $40 million). We believe that the game would have driven hardware sales of at least $100 million, and think that GameStop would have captured a similar market share." Though he concludes, "Notwithstanding the shift, we expect GameStop to capture a similar level of sales in the April quarter (when the game is now scheduled for release), so we do not consider the delay particularly meaningful."