Opinion: The Portable Future

[In an opinion piece originally published in Game Developer magazine's September 2011 issue, editor-in-chief Brandon Sheffield examines the Nintendo 3DS and the PlayStation Vita, noting the challenges these handhelds face in today's increasingly competitive market.] By the time you read this, we'll already know the preliminary results of Nintendo's 3DS price drop. As of this writing, we can only speculate, but we do know that this is one of the most drastic price drops that has ever been made so close to a system's launch. The decision-makers at Nintendo did it because they had to. But why did they have to? One of the big problems is differentiation. Without the 3D, the 3DS is more or less a DS with nicer graphics. Without a big software push, that's not nearly enough to warrant a purchase if you have a DS already, especially if you've already replaced your older DS with a DS Lite, DSi, or XL. Consumers are clearly taking a wait and see approach to the 3DS, but while they wait, DS sales are dropping significantly. It seems that people are waiting to see whether the 3DS will become relevant to them, and they are already mostly done buying DS units and games, as those numbers have trailed off significantly. In effect, the 3DS is competing with the DS, because that's what it supplants. And if the 3DS isn't currently compelling enough to buy, and it replaces the older model, it makes both systems look bad. And on the consumer side, with so many handheld gaming options available, including the PSP and iOS devices, any game player with more than one handheld has a lot of options right now. If people aren't buying many DS and 3DS games, they're probably buying something else. It seems to me that Nintendo has a mindshare problem right now, and consumers won't wait forever. This is what I think the price drop addresses. But of course, the ultimate change will come with software people want to buy. This, more than anything, can change the course of the 3DS. Vita The Vita has a slightly different problem. Sony doesn't have to worry about the Vita killing off the PSP, because that has essentially happened in Western markets already. The PSP still does well in Japan, where, popularity-wise, piracy is less, and Monster Hunter is decidedly more. But even there, the PSP is definitely ready for a successor. The Vita has a touch screen on the front, and a touchpad on the back (and if that winds up being a fantastic gameplay enabler I'll eat my hat). That's a bit of differentiation, but in a game like Uncharted: Golden Abyss, how central will the touch screen really be to core gameplay? Everything that's been announced for the Vita so far has been pretty hardcore-oriented. The console is essentially a PSP with nicer graphics - but in opposition to Nintendo, I don't think this is a problem for Sony. The PSP was always pitched as a console experience in a handheld, not a disruptive device. The DS was meant to change the way we played games - the PSP was just supposed to bring our consoles with us. Replacing a machine with nice graphics with a new machine with nicer graphics makes more sense for Sony than it does for Nintendo, because that's how the console has always been marketed. The Vita is currently being targeted more like a portable home console - it's not trying to reclaim the PSP audience, it wants to win over the PS3 audience. This brings memories of the PSP and the PS2, which had a similar issue. The Vita and the 3DS seem to have slightly different issues to tackle. One is the big brother of another handheld, and the other is the little brother of a home console. Digital Core As we continue to make the rocky transition from packaged to digital goods, it becomes increasingly obvious that an online store is the key to a handheld's success. Smaller games are generally associated with downloads nowadays, and handhelds are by and large living in that "smaller" arena. While the platform holders insist that they offer deeper experiences than the smartphones, that has to be backed up not only by the software, but also by the delivery of that software. If my Droid can easily download games on the train, shouldn't my Vita be able to do it better, if it's the deeper, more dedicated console? Downloadable stores are going to be an incredibly important factor in the next generation of handhelds' success, and both Nintendo and Sony have a long way to go here. If Nintendo and Sony are going to keep saying that their handhelds offer deeper experiences for core players than iOS and Android, they should back that up with the biggest differentiator between the two system styles - buttons and control. If you're going to say you're better than Apple, stop trying to shoehorn Apple's ideas into your product, and emphasize games that control well with actual pads and buttons. That speaks to the core player more than a touchpad. In this regard, I think Sony's announcements of Vita titles is more compelling, with Uncharted, Resistance, and others. Nintendo continues to release software that could potentially be on an iPhone alongside its youth-core offerings like Kid Icarus. (Sony's Xperia phone could be a contender here, if they were making a bigger push with it.) The 3DS and Vita are not only competing against the smartphones, they're also competing against each other (a bit), and older products from their respective companies (much more). The approaches Nintendo and Sony take to these predicaments in the next few years will determine the future of dedicated handhelds, as consumers seem to often feel that smartphones are "good enough."