The Games to Come - Part 1 - Author's Background and Methodology

Background:  I am an old man.  Look at my photo.  Yes, I can still fly.  Along life’s journey I've accumulated a lot of things besides a commercial pilot’s license. There are 3 college degrees on my wall, 2 college-age kids and, so far, just one incessantly grumpy ex-wife. 

I read a lot.  No, I mean I read A LOT!  Maybe it’s by a power of a thousand times, or maybe even more, compared to the limited amount I write.  You can call me a “closet analyst” – meaning, I am not doing game industry analysis for Forresters Research, although I’m sure I could, nor am I currently on the payroll of some well-known foreign or domestic agency.  (Although, in the past, I have been there, done that.) 

It is only fairly recently that I am focused on the game industry with an eye to the future.  “Why,” you may ask. (Well, Sherlock, possibly I am aware of ways to profit from future developments.  Or, perhaps, it is a payback from one too many games of “Pong” when I was a kid and sat at game consoles mesmerized under the influence.)  Influence of what?  (Noyb.)

So it is of late that my reading has been focused on four key areas. First off, is general “gamer dissatisfaction.”  This can be gleaned from snippets tucked away in the more thorough game reviews, as well as in the often times more insightful, “comments” that gamers themselves attach to game reviews.  I find comments about games often to be cogent and well-thought out - you just have to overlook the spelling and grammar errors.  No big deal. “Gamers who write well are probably not serious gamers.” (You can quote me on that.)  And, the obverse may also be valid. 

The second of the three “key areas” I have been on watch for in my readings can be stated as: “what specifically disappoints”.   That is, I am seeking to better understand where precisely do game developers and/or publishers fail.  Where do they “drop the ball” or “cut corners” or otherwise “fail to deliver” on the implied promise of a game.  That failure leads invariably to a downward spiral of disconnects – beginning with a games falling from favor by its early adopters – key people, who are also known as “game influencers” – the all important fountainheads for highly effective word of mouth advertising.

I also read for unintentional leaks about “emerging hardware technology”.  Often these small bits of information will be buried deep within lengthy published interviews of generally undisciplined and often overly verbose corporate officers who spill their guts when pressed into duty to be corporate spokespersons to the media.  My main focus with the hardware is to discern what is fast-tracked to becoming "cost-effective" for next generation games.  This peek into what’s now in the “hardware” pipeline influences both the analysis of “how soon” and “where” the next generation of games can go.

The last key area of information I am always on the alert for in my reading is what I call “wishes expressed” by serious game players or well-meaning reviewers.  “Wishes expressed” can often be found as “sidebar” comments tucked within the more thoughtful game reviews.  They appear as well-intentioned nuggets of free advice - offered up to game developers from someone who knows there is a better way, or senses there can be a more satisfying direction to take, or finds one or more game features that simply are not as good as they need to be in order to keep a gamer sufficiently immersed in the artificial reality of the current game experience.

Look for Part II of my series in a couple of days.  In it you will discover at least two unique nuggets of information as takeaways.  It will layout what I predict will be going into “fast-track” development during the upcoming 12 months in order to supply significantly more stimulating play for the next generation of console-bound gamers which should hit the global market in 2011.  

That aging game industry segment, in my opinion, still has a very substantial (and long overdue) promise to deliver.  Moreover, the key technology needed to bring that promise to market is available and mass production cannot help but to make it affordable.  Sony, or Microsoft or Nintendo will each find unique avenues that can make it happen - big time and for big profits.  The only risk is that they will be making everything else that is currently available, essentially obsolete.  Call it the overdue “game changer” for the game industry.  It is just around the corner. And, in my opinion, chances are that without the recession, we would have had this game changer showing up to be announced to the media in Las Vegas at the upcoming CES in January.  That’s not likely going to happen.

In closing, here are a couple of hints for those few of you who are, just like me, serious readers:  One of the “wishes” that I find to be most often expressed is for VR.  Virtual reality has been a promise unkempt for over a decade – it is very much like offering the pony to the first little girl in the current TV commercial. 

Want another hint?  Look into how often disappointment is expressed with attempts made thus far in console games that utilize as their key hook, or curiosity arousal element the suggestion of “time travel”.   Enough said for now – see you at Part 2 of this posting in a few days.