Lazard: Expect A May Sales 'Bounceback'

In his latest note to investors, Lazard's Colin Sebastian has said the analyst group expects May software sales will see "solid year-over-year growth trends" on the back of Spider-Man 3, Guitar Hero II, and Pokemon. Sebastian says the group's "back of the envelope analysis" forecasts 15-20 percent growth in console and handheld software for May, compared to -1 percent in April, driven by Spider-Man 3, Guitar Hero II Command & Conquer 3, Pokemon, Forza, and Mario Party 8. Looking at hardware, Sebastian expects ongoing strong sales of console leaders Wii, DS, and PS2, with continuing sluggish PS3 and Xbox 360 sales. Sales of the PS3 particularly are to "remain sluggish without a hardware price cut and a better differentiated software lineup, which are more likely 2008 events," said Sebastian. Turning to specific publishers, Sebastian expects sell-through to double in May over 2006, driven by Guitar Hero II, Spider-Man 3 and Shrek the Third. EA sales, though, might see a year over year decline of 15-20 percent, but, Sebastian says, that should accelerate over the summer with Harry Potter, NCAA Football and Madden NFL. Finally, with few significant releases, May should see a 15-20 percent decline over last year for THQ.