Sebastian: eBay '#1 Console Retailer' For This Xmas?

As part of his predictions for the NPD U.S. video game sales charts for October, due this afternoon, analyst Colin Sebastian of Lazard Capital Markets has remarked on the emerging reseller market for the PS3 and Wii, claiming that eBay might become "the #1 new console retailer this holiday." Sebastian explains: "With limited supplies expected this holiday for both Sony’s PS3 and Nintendo’s Wii consoles, we expect that many gamers will turn to eBay (and other online marketplaces) to locate new hardware. Already, our survey of completed auctions on ebay.com indicates that nearly 2,000 pre-ordered PS3 and Wii consoles have been resold on the marketplace to-date. In addition, the consoles are selling on eBay for approximately two and one half times the suggested retail price of console hardware, on average $1,500 for Sony’s PS3 vs. $599 and $550 vs. $249 for Nintendo’s Wii." However, recent reports have indicated that eBay may be attempting to crack down on its next-gen console listings that are sold with only a pre-order, limiting it to those who "have physical possession of the products at time of listing". Nonetheless, this doesn't stop consoles from being resold when received after launch date. As for the NPD results themselves, Sebastian notes: "On a year-over-year basis, our “back-of-the envelope” analysis suggests that software sales could be up in the 15%-20% range, driven by incremental sales of Xbox 360 software, ongoing solid Nintendo DS and Sony PS2 game sales, and a relatively easy year-over-year comparison (-24%)." He continues: "We believe top console games for the month may include Splinter Cell Double Agent (Ubisoft), EA Sports titles including Madden 07, Tiger Woods and FIFA (EA), Bully (Take Two) and Scarface (Vivendi)." The Lazard analyst's conclusion? "A year ago, retailers exercised cautious buying patterns ahead of the holidays, as current-generation sales weakened into the Xbox 360 launch. While there are still material risks again this year, the outlook for the holidays appears brighter, with significant demand expected for next-generation hardware and software in addition to a healthy handheld and resilient PS2 market."