There's surprising overlap between social and casual gamers and the core, says Ipsos OTX Media's GamePlan Insights -- 45 percent of Angry Birds owners also own Black Ops, for example.
There's bigger overlap than some think between the audience for social and casual games and so-called "core games," says Ipsos OTX Media, whose GamePlan Insights analytics look deeply at buzz and purchasing behavior among gamers of all types. Rather than segregate the market into ideas of "core" and "casual," the firm developed a two-axis spectrum: On one axis, a range of people who self-identified as "influencers" versus "non-influencers," and on the other, a range of people who express a preference for complex games versus simple games. For example, as presented in a Gamasutra-attended web seminar, the data shows BioWare's Dragon Age II is an example of a game preferred by people who most strongly identify as influencers and who have the strongest preference for complex games. On the other hand, PopCap's Bejeweled Blitz is an example of a game preferred by those who identify as non-influencers with a strong preference for simple games. But there's an overlap zone of significant size between the two spheres -- for example, 45 percent of people who own Rovio's Angry Birds also own Activision's Call of Duty: Black Ops, despite the fact that traditional gaming and social gaming still do occupy their own unique spheres. Call of Duty: Black Ops would fall on the center of the graph, in a "sweet spot" Ipsos says is practically essential to garnering mainstream success and big sales. The game is complex enough to satisfy influencers, but mainstream-marketed enough to be available to those who enjoy simplicity and don't feel they are influential. When it comes to Call of Duty's mainstream appeal, Ipsos says the brand name is "indispensable" -- when the firm began tracking the franchise under the shortened "Modern Warfare" brand, it saw a 50 percent drop in purchase intent before Activision decided to keep the Call of Duty branding. Both purchase intent and buzz now continue to grow with each iteration of the franchise. Valve's Left 4 Dead presents another interesting case study in momentum, says Ipsos -- purchase intent and sales have doubled between the first installment and its sequel, according to the firm's data. When it comes to Uncharted, it's "clearly becoming a more well-known franchise" -- interest in Uncharted 3 doubled over its predecessor, although Ipsos admits it's not necessarily a guarantee that sequels will perform according to this pattern. Rocksteady's Batman games have enormous franchise potential too, says Ipsos -- Arkham City is getting such strong buzz that the sky could be the limit for the brand.
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